Another is that it is limited in its application, as it prioritizes economic considerations in decision-making processes. There have been numerous criticisms of the hype cycle, prominent among which are that it is not a cycle, that the outcome does not depend on the nature of the technology itself, that it is not scientific in nature, and that it does not reflect changes over time in the speed at which technology develops. Desmond Roger Laurence, in the field of clinical pharmacology, described a similar process in drug development in the seventies. A longer-term historical perspective on such cycles can be found in the research of the economist Carlota Perez. Analyses of the Internet in the 1990s featured large amounts of hype, and that created "debunking" responses. Hype (in the more general media sense of the term "hype" ) plays a large part in the adoption of new media. The term "hype cycle" and each of the associated phases are now used more broadly in the marketing of new technologies. If the technology has more than a niche market then it will continue to grow. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. More enterprises fund pilots conservative companies remain cautious. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Investment continues only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.Įarly publicity produces a number of success stories-often accompanied by scores of failures. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Each hype cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology's life cycle.Ī potential technology breakthrough kicks things off.
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